Nightmare! Then Wow! Then D'OH!

Zack Greinke tonight learned an important lesson: when you throw the ball belt high over the middle of the plate, you're gonna get lit up like Ted Kennedy at a Chappaquiddick cocktail party.

4.1 IP, 15 H, 11 ER, 2 BB, 2 K

It hurts to look at. It was just a dreadful night for Greinke, his fifth poor outing in a row. The only positive was the bomb he hit to left center, but even the joy RC received from that was short-lived.

Folks, it is too early to panic, but it's definitely time to be concerned. Something ain't right with Greinke, and he's going to have to make some serious adjustments to right the ship. Hopefully Royals pitching guru Guy Hansen is on top of it, because right now, Greinke doesn't even come close to resembling his rookie form, let alone the form of a Major League pitcher. His fastballs and changeups are finding way too much plate, and his hard breaking balls have little movement. The only effective pitch he has right now is the slow curve, and a pitcher simply cannot survive with only one quality pitch.

EDITOR'S NOTE: the above was written in the fifth inning of last night's game, when the score was 11-2. The below was written after the miracle comeback, and the pop-up GW HR by Troy Glaus.

Well, that was certainly an interesting game. It was great to see the Royals claw back in the late innings the way they did. And they did it by taking pitches and drawing walks. Finally in the eighth inning, the Royals took advantage of the home plate umpire's ridiculously small strike zone, drawing six walks off of three different pitchers while scoring six runs. One can only imagine what might have happened if they had taken a similar approach earlier in the game against Russ Ortiz, a pitcher who is prone to giving up free passes in bunches. But whatever...nice comeback.

And now for Matt Diaz... What in the hell was his at bat all about? In case you missed it, Diaz pinch "hit" for Ambiorix Burgos in the top of the 10th inning with one out. Except he didn't go up to hit. With NOBODY ON BASE, Diaz attempted to bunt the ball up the first base line, but pushed it foul. That didn't set of too many alarms with RC, because it might not have been completely foolish to try to catch the D-backs by surprise with the first baseman playing back. But on the next pitch, the crazy bastard squared around AGAIN, only to take the pitch for a ball. At this point, RC's official television became a target, as anything within an arm's reach was being tossed at it.

After taking another ball and another strike, Diaz AGAIN squared around to bunt, only to miss and strike out. At this point, if you were standing anywhere within 500 feet of RC Headquarters, you would have been exposed to a stream of obscenities that would make R. Lee Ermey proud. I can think of only three posibilities that would explain that at bat:

1) Diaz was hurt and could not swing; or
2) Diaz is the world's biggest moron; or
3) Some coach told him to do it

Honestly, I have no idea what the correct answer is, but hopefully I'll find out soon. Right now, I suspect it was #1. Regardless, I sincerely hope Diaz is the odd man out tomorrow when Howell is placed on the 25-man roster, although the injury to Steve Stemle today may have given him a reprieve. We'll see. If he's hurt, he could be gone too.

Updates! Howell to start tomorrow!

It has now been confirmed that J.P. Howell will make his Major League debut tomorrow night vs. the D-Backs. According to 810 WHB in Kansas City, Royals officials were just so impressed with Howell's "mound presence," they decided to move him up at this time to join this year's youth movement. Howell is already in Arizona, and we are likely to get a picture of him charting pitches tonight in the Royals dugout. Apparently, he came to San Francisco and traveled to Phoenix with the team. RC trusts the judgement of Allard Baird on this matter, but we really, really, really hope he's not wrong.

This is actually a few days old, but for some reason we failed to mention that the KC Star on Wednesday reported the following:

Third baseman Billy Butler, the organization's top prospect, could also be switching positions when he returns later this month from a hand injury. Butler, 19, had already started workouts in left field before suffering a deep bruise last week when he was hit by a pitch.

It is no coincidence that this was announced immediately after RC #1 Royals prospect Alex Gordon was drafted. It confirms the presence of a method to Allard Baird's madness, as he didn't want to move Butler until he knew for certain how the rest of the puzzle fit together. Now that puzzle is nearing completion, and it seems to include an outfield of Butler, David DeJesus, and Gordon in Kansas City by Opening Day 2007. RC has been having trouble getting sleep the past few nights, as the prospect of that outfield along with a middle lineup including those three and our favorite Aussie Justin Huber is simply too exciting.

The spreadsheet on the Royals financial situation is now complete and ready to post, and RC will do so on Sunday evening. The Eli Marrero trade threw a little wrinkle into the data, as nobody is sure exactly how much money the Orioles are picking up, but we think you'll be pleased nonetheless. Check back Sunday night for our BIGGEST and BEST feature yet!

This is the last week for you to order your Official Royals Corner merchandise at base cost. Lots of great items are still available, and new things are being added almost every day! You'll hate yourself if you don't take advantage of this incredible offer before it's gone!

Put those brooms away!

Due to a stupid oversight, I forgot to set my DVR to record the Royals game today. Therefore, I have been unable to see anything from their 9-7 loss to the Giants, so I can't comment on a whole lot. A couple things did stand out, however, from what I've been able to find out about the game.

First, as we predicted, RC Official Scapegoat Jose Lima probably pitched well enough (5.0 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 4 K) to get another start from Buddy Bell. Lima's continued presence in the rotation is a sore point with just about any Royals fan who's seen him pitch this year, as it really takes on the feeling that the Royals are simply delaying the inevitable. But in the long run, it doesn't really matter. Yes, it's tough to watch, but it isn't like there are any prospects beating on the door to take his place in the rotation. He'll be gone soon enough.

Second, Marvin (a.k.a Leo Nunez) got roughed up pretty badly in just an inning of work (6 H, 5 ER, 0 K). However, according to a source who actually watched the game, Nunez wasn't nearly as bad as his line. As we've seen so often this year, Nunez was apparently victimized by a combination of bad luck and shaky defense, as little bloopers were finding outfield grass and ground balls were finding holes and funny bounces. Nevertheless, the smart money would be on Marvin getting a return ticket to the minor leagues on Saturday, when J.P. Howell is likely to be called up to make his Major League debut against the D-Backs.

The Royals seem to be catching Arizona at the right time, as the snakes have dropped eight out of their last ten games. The pitching matchups for the series are as follows:

Friday -- Zack Greinke vs. Russ Ortiz
Saturday -- J.P. Howell (probably) vs. Brad Halsey
Sunday -- D.J. Carrasco vs. Brandon Webb

Tomorrow night is probably KC's best shot at victory, but each of these matchups are intriguing, and you can bet your sweet behind that RC will be closely watching each game -- particularly if Howell does indeed make his debut on Saturday.

Hernandez wins again....

It looked like a miserable night in San Francisco, as a foggy, wet mist fell on the field throughout the game, but in the end, the Royals prevailed 4-1 over the Giants on the heels of another stellar pitching performance. Tonight, the portly Runelvys Hernandez was the hero, and the bullpen, while a little shaky, managed to bring the game home. Hernandez's line on the night doesn't look all that dominant, but this was easily one of the better games he's pitched all year:

6.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R (earned), 4 BB, 3 K

The one run he surrendered was a HR to Ray Durham on a ball -- I believe it was a slider that didn't break -- that Hernandez left up in the zone. But that was his only mistake of the night. Some folks may be concerned about the four walks, but the strike zone was ridiculously tight, and Hernandez was around the plate all night. Of his 102 pitches on the evening, 67 were strikes. Walks on a night like tonight don't concern me that much.

Offensively, there's nothing too exciting to report, other than RC favorite David DeJesus continuing to regain his early-season form with a couple nice line drive singles to left field. Angel Berroa stung a few balls tonight as well, but I suppose that's bound to happen every now and again when you swing at everything.

All together, this was the second nice win in a row for the Royals, and Buddy Bell now boasts a 6-2 record as Royals skipper. Of course, Jose Lima pitches tomorrow. It would be nice if the Royals could win the game in a 15-14 slugfest, but I have a gut feeling that Lima will benefit from SBC's vast outfield, and unfortunately "earn" himself another start. If not, the bullpen is well rested, so the Royals still may be in good shape. We'll see.

Moving along:

The second day of the amateur draft carried no major surprises, although the Royals did draft high school SS Justin Bristow with their 22nd round pick. Bristow was ranked by Baseball America as the fourth best high school senior available in the draft, and he was projected to be a first round pick. The 6-foot-4, 205-pound Virginian lasted until the 22nd round because he has a scholarship to attend Auburn University in the fall, and he seems determined to go. It will take a lot of dollars to pry him away from college, but RC is convinced the Royals ought to try. Signing him would be like stealing another first round pick -- even if we deprive yet another young man from receiving higher education (can you hear the violins?).

The Royals somehow managed to trade Eli Marrero to the Orioles in exchange for a Pete Maestrales, a minor league infielder. Maestrales is a non-prospect, as he's about to turn 26 years old and is still stuck in low-A ball, but it's still an interesting trade. The most important aspect of the deal is that the O's reportedly will also take on some of Marrero's salary. No word yet on how much, but this truly seems to be a case of RC Official Hero Allard Baird again getting something for nothing. Of course, RC also predicts that Marrero will now go on a tear and hit over .400 for the rest of the season, just to spite us.

RC promises to bring you the finest Royals commentary on a daily basis, but occasionally we still get scooped. Unfortunately, it happened yesterday with the draft coverage, as a competing blog run by Clark Fosler (you may know him as cfos) did an excellent job on his draft coverage. You can read his analysis of the Royals first day picks here.

Royals Corner has been up and running for less than a week, but we're proud to announce that today we passed the 1000 hit mark, and this afternoon we welcomed our 500th unique visitor. A heartfelt "thanks" goes out to ALL of our loyal readers, and we look forward to exposing even more people to our brand of optimistic Royals analysis in the future.

Rule 5 shines on Rule 4 Day

OK, I really don't have much to say, but I thought of what I figured was a clever headline (the Rule 4 draft being the amateur draft), and I didn't want to waste it. The fact is that former Rule 5 draft pick D.J. Carrasco had a masterful performance tonight, and he lowered his ERA to a staff-leading 2.48 with an 8-1 complete game victory over the struggling Giants.

Carrasco was nasty tonight -- we saw more broken bats tonight than we have in any other game this season. If he continues to pitch like this, the Royals may have a very cheap yet effective fifth starter in their rotation for several years to come. There are some concerns about his rather putrid sub-3 K/9 IP rate, but if you look at his career stats, you'll see that this is most likely a statistical outlier.

Throughout his career, Carrasco's sole problem has been his control. Since he became a starter for KC, his control has been stellar. Perhaps Guy Hansen has had an effect on him...or perhaps he's been lucky his last few starts. Either way, RC will be pulling for him to keep it up, as right now, D.J. Carrasco is one of the most effective pitchers on the staff. And this was a great win!

Top 10 draft pick recap....

RC is currently processing a lot of information, and so our complete draft commentary is not ready just yet. Our initial impression of the draft is that the Royals went out and got the best players available in the first two rounds, and then made some "interesting" picks. Their fourth and fifth round selections, for instance, are somewhat puzzling initially, as neither Dickerson nor Hayes seems to have justified such a high selection. But we haven't yet heard the explanation, so it's very possible that we're missing something. Of course it's also possible that the Royals went into cost-savings mode in order to ensure they'd be able to sign the best player in their draft, Gordon. Regardless, the overall first day looks promising, and RC is not disappointed.

We've compiled some of the available information on the first 10 picks. Most of the scouting reports are taken directly from the Major League Scouting Bureau, and several of the players have video clips available. Further comment will be forthcoming, as RC promises to continue being the best source of Royals information available on the web.


1) Alex Gordon - 3B - University of Nebraska

Video

For report, please see yesterday's post


2) Jeffrey Bianchi – SS -- Lampeter HS, PA

Video
COMMENT: Excellent frame. Very athletic and agile. Good growth potential. Balanced, line drive hitter. Generates bat speed. Agile and fluid in field, good footwork. Quick hands. Throws carry. Moves well down line, on base. Aggressive hitter and team leader.

3) Christopher Nicoll – RHP – UC Irvine, CA

Video
COMMENT: Lean, well-proportioned athletic body. Still has room to grow. Delivery is smooth, easy and deliberate. FB tails a little into RHH. Short, quick 3/4 slider is his best breaking pitch. Mixes pitches and changes speeds well. Good competitor on the mound.

BA: Nicoll has drawn favorable comparisons to Jason Windsor, who led Cal State Fullerton to the 2004 College World Series title and was the event’s Most Outstanding Player. There is a parallel between the two because new UC Irvine coach Dave Serrano worked with Windsor as the pitching coach at Fullerton before he took the Irvine job. Like Windsor, Nicoll has an excellent feel for pitching. He commands an 88-90 mph fastball to both sides of the plate and has a knack for making hitters swing at pitches out of the strike zone. Overall, his stuff is a little short. His slider is inconsistent but he gets good deception. Tall and lanky with a refined delivery, Nicoll projects to throw harder. He is coming off a fine season last summer in the Cape Cod League, where he went 4-1, 1.70 for Orleans. After being used in a swing role his first two years, he has been the ace of the Anteaters staff this spring, going 6-3, 2.34 with nine-inning averages of 9.2 strikeouts and 1.9 walks. Like Windsor, he has a chance to go as high as the third round but also could go as late as the fifth or sixth.


4) Joseph Dickerson – CF -- Esperanza HS, CA

Video

5) Shawn Hayes – SS – Franklin Pierce College, NH

COMMENT: Lean, strong w/ athletic, live body. Compares body & arm strength wise to Joe Nathan at same stage. Slight uppercut stroke for gap power, more to come later. Loose, live, whip arm, does it easy. Solid hands, will catch all near him. Solid makeup.

6) Ryan Diprieto – LHP – Eastern Connecticut State University, CT

COMMENT: Narrow frame. Similar to fomer ML John Tudor. Loose, easy arm. Short in back, good out front. Smooth delivery, finesse and feel for the mound. Keeps arm speed on circle change-up.

7) Brent Fisher – LHP – Tolleson Union HS, AZ

8) Nicholas Doscher – C – Moore Catholic HS, NY

9) Kiel Thibault – C – Gonzaga University, WA

COMMENT: Country strong, athletic build w/ solid legs. Strong, level swing w/ length in hitting zone drives ball straight away. Has ML-quality quick defensive skills. Throws on target. Exudes leadership.

10) Jeffrey Howell – C – Florida Southern College, FL

Video

COMMENT: Solid, well-proportioned frame. Line-drive stroke w/ strength in swing. Likes to hit to RF and RCF w/ occasional power. Loose, easy arm w/ on-line carry. Strong, soft hands, seldom drops ball. Good catch and throw ability. Hard-nosed kid.

Sign up for RC's Daily Prospect Update!

As we have repeatedly mentioned, RC's mission is to constantly look for ways to upgrade the quality of this site. Keeping with that theme, we have added a new feature, the Official Royals Corner Daily Prospect Update, which is offered to our readers via daily e-mail updates. You don't want to miss any of our reports, so we strongly encourage all our readers to subscribe immediately. This feature will offer our readers daily updates on Royals prospects that won't be available on our main site, so make sure you sign up now! Here's a sample of what you'll get:


Royals Corner Daily Prospect Update
August 18, 2005
Compiled by RC staff

----------------------------------------------------------
Today on Royals Corner:

Royals drop 18th straight.

25th anniversary of George Brett going over .400 on August 17,
1980

Tomorrow night, check out our first installment of RC's plan for the coming
offseason. Why do we remain so optimistic in the face of such miserable
failure on the diamond? You'll have to stop by Royals Corner to find out.
----------------------------------------------------------

Organizational scores (8/17/05):

Omaha 6 @ New Orleans 2 - (W)
Wichita 13,5 vs. San Antonio 5,4 - (2W - doubleheader sweep)
High Desert 5 vs. Stockton 5 (game tied at press time)
Burlington 10 vs. Wisconsin 2 (W)
Idaho Falls - No game tonight
Arizona Royals 4,7 vs. Arizona Angels 0,9 (split doubleheader 8/16)

News and Notes:

#1 prospect Billy Butler drilled his first double-A homerun, a grand slam in Wichita's
10-run sixth inning in the first game of their doubleheader. On the
night, Butler was 2-for-7 with 4 RBI.

#5 prospect Luis Cota got the win for Burlington, pitching
seven beautiful innings. Cota took a no-hitter into the fifth inning, and only
allowed 2 hits overall.

#10 prospect Leo Nunez entered Wichita's second game in the top
of the sixth inning with a 5-2 lead, one out, and the bases loaded. Nunez struck
out the first batter he faced, and induced a harmless groundout to first to
record the third out, thus keeping the three-run lead in tact. Wichita's
announcer said he's never seen Nunez pitch better. Of course, Nunez struggled in
the following inning, surrendering a two-out, two-run HR before closing the game
out and collecting the save. Both runs were unearned because of an error on Mike
Aviles, which was his 36th of the season.

#17 prospect Brent Fisher had another stellar outing for the
Arizona Royals on Tuesday. The Royals 7th round pick in the 2005 draft, Fisher
just turned 18 years old less than two weeks ago, and the lefty is absolutely
dominating Arizona League competition thus far -- 11.8 K/9 ratio, 1.18 WHIP,
2.60 ERA, 6.56 K/BB ratio. He's definitely someone to keep an eye
on.

Matt Diaz (OMA) went 2-for-4 with 2 RBI, a triple (4), and a SB
(8). Current BA: .377

Ruben Gotay (WCH) went 2-for-4 with 2 R, 2 RBI, 2 2B, and 3
BB.

----- Daily update for key Royals farmhands - 8/17/05 ------






What are you waiting for? To sign up, simply send a blank e-mail to Royalscorner-subscribe@yahoogroups.com and follow the instructions, which will require you to send a confirmation e-mail (Editor's note: you do NOT have to sign up for a yahoo ID).

YES!!!!!

Royals Corner is speechless. The Royals did the right thing and selected Gordon. Be sure to come back here this evening for more updates and commentary. But in the meantime, if you have the means, please pop open a cold one for those of us poor bastards who are stuck at work.

EDIT: Even though I'm stuck at work, I am providing a draft tracker on the right navigational bar. Check back for updated Royals draftees in real time, or as close as I can get to it.

SECOND EDIT: I had to delete this post in an attempt to resolve a browser issue some people are experiencing with the site, so the original comments have been deleted. I'm not sure how to resolve the issue, but it won't be a problem for long, because I'm going to be moving off of blogspot soon enough.

Useful Baseball Links

Click below to visit one of the many sites from which RC obtains our valuable information.

Rotoworld

Minor League Ball, featuring John Sickels

The Baseball Cube

Baseball Prospectus

Baseball America

Minor League Baseball

Cot's Baseball Contracts page

2005-2006 Potential Free Agents

The moment of truth...

Today is the day. Yesterday was the 61st anniversary of the Normandy landing, but for the Royals, today is D-Day.

Draft Day. Around 1 pm EST, or shortly thereafter, we should know a lot more about the future of the Royals organization. Have the Royals truly devoted their resources to acquire the best player possible, or will the Royals again go with a signability pick?

We'll have our answer in a matter of hours, and the repercussions of that answer will affect the direction of this club for years. Yes, every draft is important, but today the Royals have the second overall pick, their highest draft pick ever, and it comes in the midst of the worst season in club history. To put it frankly, today is one of the most important days in the history of the franchise.

With that in mind, Royals Corner is prepared to endorse a candidate. After following his progress for the past year, reading dozens of scouting reports, and watching him on ESPN and his MLB Scouting Bureau video, RC has decided the Royals should select Alex Gordon, 3B - University of Nebraska, with the second overall pick. Gordon possesses not only the physical attributes to make him a perennial All Star, but he also has a record of superior performance, plate discipline, and power against the highest level of amateur competition. Additionally, Gordon has steadily improved each year of his collegiate career, which bodes well for his ability to do the same as a professional. Here's are his collegiate stats:

Year   AB    HR   AVG   OBP   SLG   BB   K    SB/ATT
2003   216   7   .319  .426  .495   29   34   8/17
2004   211   18  .365  .493  .754   47   34   12/14
2005   238   18  .382  .526  .735   58   34   23/26  

If you've never seen Gordon hit, then you've missed out. He hits from somewhat of a crouch, his entire body quiet with the exception of a slight wiggle in his hands, before exploding on the ball. His hands are incredibly quick, and they take his bat straight to the ball in a nearly strideless, effortless swing. His power comes from his strong torso and legs, and he has the ability to drive the ball to all fields with power. Defensively, he is a good 3B with soft hands, a strong arm, and adequate range, and he is athletic enough to handle a change of position if necessary, whether it be to a corner outfield spot or first base.

Simply put, Alex Gordon is the man. Pre-draft indicators all point in the direction of the Royals selecting Gordon. On a visit to Lincoln last week, Royals GM Allard Baird was even quoted by the Omaha World-Herald as saying "Just the fact that we're here, I think it says all you need to know." Following his game, Gordon was scheduled to meet with Baird and Royals President Dan Glass.

Of course, there are any number of things that could happen today that result in the Royals not drafting RC's first choice. If that happens, we encourage our fellow Royals fans not to panic, for there will quite likely be a good reason. Any pick will have to be analyzed before rushing to judgement, and you can count on the Royals Corner to try to make sense of any move. Stay tuned. Two other quick notes:

Royals LHP prospect J.P. Howell made his first start today for the Omaha Royals, picking up the victory in a 9-5 win over the Nashville Sounds, the Milwaukee Brewers' AAA affiliate. Despite getting the win, Howell's line was not very good:
5.1 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 3 ER, 4 BB, 2 K

It will be interesting to see if this throws a monkey wrench into the Royals' potential plan of promoting him for the start on Saturday vs. Arizona.

We're pleased to announce the opening of the Official Royals Corner online store. Feel free to check out our merchandise at your leisure, as you can now order your official RC hat, T-shirt, or even thong with just the click of a button. And for a limited time only, the prices are listed at cost -- you won't find a better deal ANYWHERE on the web!

RC's Top 40 Royals Prospects

Below are the Top 40 Royals prospects, as determined by Royals Corner staff.

A quick word about list eligibility. We like the standard we set back in October, and we’ve decided to keep it, with one exception (discussed below). To be eligible for our list, position players must not have played in 50 games or had 300 plate appearances. Pitchers are broken down into two categories. The threshold for starting pitchers is 100 innings or 20 starts, while relief pitchers must not have reached 20 appearances or 50 innings pitched. In addition, anyone with over one year of Major League service time is ineligible, even if the majority of that time was spent on the DL.

Of course, RC always reserves the right to use our own discretion on an individual basis, and we’ve decided to include Leo Nunez on this list, even though he exceeded our threshold for relief pitchers last season. Since Nunez is so young, and since he’s slated for significant time in the minors this season, we believe his prospect status remains intact.

RC's Top 40 Prospects:

Rank	Player	Position	Club
1.	Alex Gordon	3B	WCH
2.	Billy Butler	LF	WCH
3.	Justin Huber	1B	OMA
4.	J.P. Howell	SP	OMA
5.	Chris Lubanski	OF	WCH
6.	Luis Cota	SP	HDM
7.	Jeff Bianchi	SS	N/A
8.	Chris McConnell	SS	BUR
9.	Mitch Maier	OF	WCH
10.	Esteban German	IF/OF	KCR
11.	Billy Buckner	SP	HDM
12.	Daniel Christensen	SP	HDM
13.	Shane Costa	OF	KCR
14.	Donnie Murphy	2B	WCH
15.	Andres Blanco	SS	OMA
16.	Chris Nicoll	SP	BUR
17.	Leo Nunez	RP	WCH
18.	Brent Fisher	SP	N/A
19.	Angel Sanchez	SS	WCH
20.	Joel Peralta	RP	KCR
21.	Joe Dickerson	OF	N/A
22.	Jose Duarte	OF	BUR
23.	Mike Aviles	IF	OMA
24.	Brian Bass	SP	OMA
25.	Wilver Perez	IF	HDM
26.	Adam Donachie	C	HDM
27.	Juan Cedeno	SP	WCH
28.	Kila Kaaihue	1B	WCH
29.	Kiel Thibault	C	BUR
30.	Mario Lisson	IF	BUR
31.	Erik Cordier	SP	N/A
32.	Rayner Oliveros	SP	BUR
33.	Jeffrey Howell	C	BUR
34.	Mike Stodolka	1B	HDM
35.	Brian McFall	OF	HDM
36.	Matt Tupman	C	WCH
37.	Matt Campbell	SP	N/A
38.	Paul Raglione	SP	N/A
39.	Matt Kniginyzky	SP	BUR
40.	Brady Everett	C	HDM

College update archive

-------April 24, 2006-------

Draft Prospect Update (4/24/06)

Most of the top pitchers on our list had big tests this weekend vs. top-ranked programs, and most came through quite nicely. North Carolina's Andrew Miller led the way and remains #1 on our list after shutting down seventh-ranked NC State through 8.1 IP. Miller remains the consensus top pitcher in the country by most publications, and the Tar Heels over the weekend took sole possession of first place in the ACC. Daniel Bard had the most impressive outing of the weekend for North Carolina, tossing a four-hit shutout to complete the sweep. It's not too late for him, so if he continues to pitch well he may find his way back onto our list.

California's Brandon Morrow got no help from his defense in losing to ninth-ranked Oregon State, but his stats suggest that he pitched well, as he surrendered only three hits while being charged with five earned runs. Morrow held on to the #2 spot this week, but he'll have to continue pitching well to stay there.

On Morrow's heels this week is Washington's Tim Lincecum, who moved to #3 after beating No. 22 USC on Friday. Lincecum is reportedly getting a lot of attention from the Royals, and he remains a strong possibility for selection with the first overall pick. Houston's Brad Lincoln also moved up on our list after striking out 11 in a no decision vs. Memphis. We haven't heard as much about Lincoln, but there's been enough speculation about the Royals' interest in him that we felt his placement at #4 was justified.

Missouri's Max Scherzer continued his slide in our rankings after missing another weekend with tendinitis. He hasn't pitched since April 8, and he's made only six starts all season. We still have no idea when he might return to action, but it's probably too late for him to be considered for the first overall pick.

RC's Top 10 Collegiate Draft Prospects

RC Rank	Player	Position	School	Last week
1.	Andrew Miller	LHP	North Carolina	1
2.	Brandon Morrow	RHP	California	2
3.	Tim Lincecum	RHP	Washington	5
4.	Brad Lincoln	RHP	Houston	7
5.	Evan Longoria	3B/IF	Long Beach St.	3
6.	Joba Chamberlain	RHP	Nebraska	5
7.	Max Scherzer	RHP	Missouri	4
8.	Drew Stubbs	OF	Texas	8
9.	Wes Hodges	3B	Georgia Tech	9
10.	Matt Antonelli	3B	Wake Forest	10

Pitching Statistics (Last updated 4/24/06)

Rank	Player	School	ERA	W-L	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	OPP BA
1.	A. Miller	N. Carolina	1.56	9-0	69.1	46	21	12	20	73	.185
		Last game: 4/21		(W)	8.1	5	3	3	2	7
2.	B. Morrow	California	1.52	7-1	77.0	49	22	13	36	81	.187
		Last game: 4/21		(L)	7.0	3	5	0	2	5
3.	T. Lincecum	Washington	1.59	9-2	85.0	41	23	15	45	140	.144
		Last game: 4/21		(W)	6.0	5	2	2	4	11
4.	B. Lincoln	Houston	1.82	8-1	89.0	63	23	18	21	109	.198
		Last game: 4/21		(ND)	8.0	6	2	2	1	11
6.	J. Chamberlain	Nebraska	3.35	5-3	48.1	36	18	18	22	55	.213
		Last game: 4/21		(L)	6.0	6	5	5	4	7
7.	M. Scherzer	Missouri	2.67	3-1	33.2	25	10	10	10	36	.219
		Last game: 4/8		(ND)	4.2	2	1	1	1	3

Batting Statistics (Last Updated 4/24/06)

Rank	Player	School	AB	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
5.	E. Longoria	Long Beach St.	132	8	29	26	21	3	1	.333	.458	.598
8.	D. Stubbs	Texas	161	9	36	30	44	17	4	.342	.448	.609
9.	W. Hodges	Georgia Tech	161	9	51	25	38	0	1	.354	.443	.615
10.	M. Antonelli	Wake Forest	171	11	33	34	21	13	2	.345	.459	.649

-------April 17, 2006-------

Draft Prospect Update (4/17/06)

Every pitcher on our list won in fine fashion this weekend with the exception of Max Scherzer, who was again withheld from the Tigers' rotation due to shoulder tendinitis. No word yet on when Scherzer is expected back, but the tendinitis this season, along with his retention of Scott Boras as his advisor, have probably irreparably damaged his draft position. A lot of things would probably have to go wrong for the Royals to draft Scherzer at #1 now.

For the first time this season, RC has ranked a pitcher other than Andrew Miller ahead of Scherzer. California's Brandon Morrow this week slides into the #2 slot, and he's right on Miller's heels for the #1 overall ranking. Since Morrow is a west coast pitcher, RC hasn't had an opportunity to see him ourselves, but we have obtained some pretty good reports from folks who have.

Sam Geaney runs the excellentCalLeaguers.com, and this year he's added video clips of some of the best collegiate players in the country. RC was impressed with Morrow's flawless mechanics in the video we saw (which you can see here and here), and we asked Sam for his thoughts on the Golden Bears' ace:

I love Morrow. Going to school at Cal I've seen lots of his starts this year. He came into the year with lots of questions to answer. He has diabetes so there was concern over what kind of impact that would have on him. He missed much of last year with shoulder problems so no one knew how healthy he was. He also had a horrible year last year -- didn't throw strikes, and when he did, he got lit up.

He's obviously answered every single one of these questions.

He typically pitches at 96-99, he went through what I would call a dead arm period of sorts over the last month where while he would still touch a handful of 6's and 7's he would "only" pitch at 94-95. Funny how I see it as a letdown when he's only throwing that hard.

He also throws a curve, slider, splitter, change and cutter. Basically everything and he'll show you a plus one of each offering...

Part of his problems throwing strikes (much improved and statistically acceptable) have been related to his inability to command his secondary pitches, and I think it's a case of the kid having too many weapons and in a sense needing to simplify his repertoire at this time and pick one breaking ball and one offspeed pitch.

We thank Sam for the report, and we believe it's pretty clear that Morrow has an incredible arm. RC Correspondent Jeff Elbracht saw Morrow pitch on Thursday, and Jeff reports that Morrow was still consistently throwing 95-96 in the seventh inning. Without a doubt, Morrow is a serious candidate for the first overall pick, and at this point it wouldn't surprise us in the least to see the Royals take him over Miller. However, there's still a lot of time before June for crazy things to happen and other players to distinguish themselves, so take that for what it's worth.

RC booted Ian Kennedy, Daniel Bard, and Dallas Buck from our list while adding Washington's Tim Lincecum, Houston's Brad Lincoln, and Wake Forest's Matt Antonelli. Lincecum boasts perhaps the best numbers of any pitcher in Division I, and Lincoln isn't far behind. Both have positioned themselves nicely to become possible Top 10 picks. Neither really has the size you'd expect to see in a first overall selection (both are only 6-feet tall, and Lincecum weighs only 160 lbs.), but their stats are difficult to ignore. We've seen video of Lincecum, and while he throws hard, his mechanics would give us some cause for concern. Regardless, we'll watch both closely throughout the remainder of the season.

-------April 10, 2006-------

Draft Prospect Update (4/10/06)

There were few standout performances over the weekend, as the draft picture becomes increasingly murkier with each week. North Carolina's Andrew Miller continues to remain the draft's #1 prospect, but there are starting to be some questions about the consensus behind that designation. Baseball America last week reported that the Royals by no means consider any of the top collegiate pitchers a slam dunk, and they've expanded their search beyond the four pitches identified earlier in the season -- Miller, Daniel Bard, Max Scherzer, and Ian Kennedy.

As a result of this news, RC has radically adjusted our list. We now believe the Royals may in fact go with a college bat, or even a high schooler, with the first overall pick. As such, we've bumped Long Beach State's Evan Longoria to number two on our list, since he is now universally regarded as the best collegiate position player available in the draft.

California's Brandon Morrow has debuted this week on our list at the number four position. The reason for his high placement on the list is twofold. His stellar performance thus far, combined with his upper-90s heat and good size, is a major factor, but so are the mediocre seasons of the pitchers who had previously ranked higher than him. Morrow has improved his draft position throughout the season, and the Royals are certain to take a close look at him in the coming weeks.

Ian Kennedy put in the weekend's best performance, picking up a 10-inning complete game victory over California. It was his first stellar outing in some time, and his status as a Scott Boras client keeps him from climbing on our list this week.

Daniel Bard's draft position in particular continues to stumble, as another poor outing over the weekend vs. Miami bumped his ERA up to 5.17. He's been relegated to Sunday duty by the #1 Tar Heels, and he may fall to the late first round or worse if he doesn't begin to turn his season around soon.

RC's Top 10 Collegiate Draft Prospects

RC Rank	Player	Position	School	Last week
1.	Andrew Miller	LHP	North Carolina	1
2.	Evan Longoria	3B/IF	Long Beach St.	5
3.	Max Scherzer	RHP	Missouri	3
4.	Brandon Morrow	RHP	California	NR
5.	Joba Chamberlain	RHP	Nebraska	8
6.	Ian Kennedy	RHP	Southern California	6
7.	Drew Stubbs	OF	Texas	7
8.	Dallas Buck	RHP	Oregon St.	8
9.	Wes Hodges	3B	Georgia Tech	10
10.	Daniel Bard	RHP	North Carolina	4

Pitching Statistics (Last updated 4/10/06)

Rank	Player	School	ERA	W-L	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	OPP BA
1.	A. Miller	N. Carolina	1.53	7-0	53.0	36	14	9	14	64	.188
		Last game: 4/7		(W)	6.0	5	4	2	4	3
3.	M. Scherzer	Missouri	2.67	3-1	33.2	25	10	10	10	36	.219
		Last game: 4/8		(ND)	4.2	2	1	1	1	3
4.	B. Morrow	California	1.57	6-0	63.0	43	15	11	29	68	.200
		Last game: 4/9		(ND)	6.0	4	1	0	6	5
5.	J. Chamberlain	Nebraska	3.00	4-2	36.0	26	12	12	15	37	.208
		Last game: 4/7		(W)	6.0	7	3	3	4	2
6.	I. Kennedy	USC	2.95	3-4	64.0	53	25	21	19	67	.228
		Last game: 4/7		(W)	10.0	5	1	1	1	8
8.	D. Buck	Oregon St.	3.99	6-0	49.2	39	24	22	27	40	.220
		Last game: 4/7		(ND)	4.1	7	5	5	3	1
10.	D. Bard	N. Carolina	5.16	3-2	45.1	38	29	26	19	54	.225
		Last game: 4/9		(ND)	4.2	8	6	6	3	6

Batting Statistics (Last Updated 4/10/06)

Rank	Player	School	AB	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2.	E. Longoria	Long Beach St.	102	7	22	20	15	3	1	.353	.473	.627
7.	D. Stubbs	Texas	132	7	29	25	39	14	2	.311	.425	.576
9.	W. Hodges	Georgia Tech	132	7	36	18	32	0	1	.364	.442	.598

-------March 27, 2006-------

The weekend belonged to Andrew Miller. In the week's most highly anticipated matchup, Miller completely dominated Georgia Tech, which possesses one of the finest offenses in the nation. Over seven shutout innings, Miller scattered four hits and a walk while striking out a career-high 13 batters. For his effort, he was named the ACC's "Pitcher of the Week," and he's solidified his place atop RC's Top 10 list. In fact, Miller's performance thus far has been so dominant that no other player is even worthy of being ranked second. He is clearly the frontrunner for first overall selection in the draft, and it's very difficult right now to imagine the Royals taking anyone other than Miller; there simply isn't anyone else who has made a very strong case. Of course, much can happen between now and June, so it's still far too early to say that Miller will be the top pick in a couple months. But if the draft were held tomorrow, we don't see any way that the Royals could pass on Miller.

Unfortunately, Miller's teammate Daniel Bard didn't fare quite as well over the weekend. In fact, for the second time in two weeks, Bard had a very disappointing outing. Due to six walks, he was unable to escape the fourth inning, which means that he's thrown a total of nine innings over his last two appearances while allowing 13 runs on 12 hits. He's walked 10 over that span while striking out only eight batters. It doesn't get any easier for the Tar Heels this weekend, as they will play host to another Top 5 team when the Florida State Seminoles come to town.

RC received some disturbing news last week, as Baseball America confirmed for the first time that pitchers Max Scherzer and Ian Kennedy are indeed committed to have Scott Boras represent them. We already knew that was the case with Kennedy, but we had heard nothing more than rumors about Scherzer's involvement with baseball's biggest menace. Now that it is confirmed, you can be certain that both pitchers will demand Major League contracts and absurd bonuses from whoever winds up selecting them in June. We don't know if that will be the deciding factor in the Royals' decision whether or not to select them, but you'd be lying to yourself if you believed it's not a factor. RC still believes that the Royals will select the best overall player available, but if the decision boils down to a Boras client and a non-Boras client of comparable talents, you can be certain the Royals will select the latter.

Joba Chamberlain returned to action with a nice victory over the Kansas Jayhawks on Saturday. He had been sidelined for the previous two weekends as Nebraska's coaches wanted to give him ample time to recover from a triceps strain. Scherzer missed his second straight start, this time with shoulder tendinitis, and Kennedy didn't pitch last week because the Trojans took the weekend off. Through a tip to RC, one of our readers informs us that Scherzer will likely pitch this Saturday, and that he was actually cleared to throw out of the bullpen last weekend, only he wasn't needed.

By the way, Baseball America also reported that Florida first baseman Matt LaPorta is a Boras client. In a related development, LaPorta no longer appears on RC's list. It was a bit of a stretch to begin with, but the chances of the Royals selecting him now are pretty much zero.

RC promised to track the progress of the players we've seen perform this year, and perhaps none has more quietly put together a great season than Harold Mozingo. We first noticed Mozingo in February, and so far this season, he's gone 4-1, pitching 53.2 innings while allowing only 28 hits and 7 walks. He's struck out 66 batters, and he's already logged three complete games. There's no question that Mozingo has improved his draft slot this season, but it will be interesting to see where he winds up being selected.

This past weekend, RC caught a game between the University of Miami and the University of Maryland. It was cold, but we got a decent look at Miami's John Jay and Eddy Rodriguez. Jay is a speedy outfielder with limited power who ranks behind some of the other outfielders we've seen this season, such as Shane Robinson and Colin Curtis. There's really not much to say about him, and unfortunately we didn't get any good photos of him (or anyone else), due to darkness. Rodriguez is a catcher who hits like a maniac but runs like a slug. After watching him take BP, RC was wondering why he hasn't appeared on any prospect list we've ever seen, but once we saw him run the bases we understood. We still owe you reports from last weekend, so we won't promise anything about the Miami game, but we'd like to eventually cut some video and write up full reports on Jay and Rodriguez. We'll keep you posted.

Up next, RC will travel to Kansas City on Thursday to attend the Missouri-Kansas games on Friday and Saturday. Hopefully Scherzer will pitch, but if not, we should get an opportunity to see him in Columbia the following weekend when the Tigers host the Huskers. If everything works out according to plan, RC over the next two weeks will get a great look at both Scherzer and Chamberlain. Stay tuned!

As for our prospect list, the order remains unchanged, except for the insertion of a vacancy and the departure of Matt LaPorta.

RC's Top 10 Collegiate Draft Prospects

RC Rank	Player	Position	School	Last week
1.	Andrew Miller	LHP	North Carolina	1
2.	---vacant---	---	---	---
3.	Max Scherzer	RHP	Missouri	2
4.	Daniel Bard	RHP	North Carolina	3
5.	Evan Longoria	3B/IF	Long Beach St.	4
6.	Ian Kennedy	RHP	Southern California	5
7.	Drew Stubbs	OF	Texas	6
8.	Joba Chamberlain	RHP	Nebraska	7
9.	Dallas Buck	RHP	Oregon St.	8
10.	Wes Hodges	3B	Georgia Tech	9

Pitching Statistics (Last updated 3/27/06)

Rank	Player	School	ERA	W-L	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	OPP BA
1.	A. Miller	N. Carolina	1.58	5-0	40.0	27	10	7	9	52	.188
		Last game: 3/24		(W)	7.0	4	0	0	1	13
3.	M. Scherzer	Missouri	2.88	3-1	25.0	18	8	8	7	31	.209
		Last game: 3/10		(L)	7.0	4	3	3	2	8
4.	D. Bard	N. Carolina	4.14	3-2	37.0	27	19	17	14	43	.201
		Last game: 3/25		(L)	3.2	2	3	2	6	2
6.	I. Kennedy	USC	2.83	2-4	47.2	39	19	15	16	53	.227
		Last game: 3/17		(L)	6.0	6	3	1	5	5
8.	J. Chamberlain	Nebraska	1.32	3-1	27.1	16	4	4	7	34	.172
		Last game: 3/25		(W)	6.1	5	1	1	1	6
9.	D. Buck	Oregon St.	3.00	6-0	42.0	28	16	14	24	37	.194
		Last game: 3/24		(W)	5.0	6	5	5	2	5

Batting Statistics (Last Updated 3/27/06)

Rank	Player	School	AB	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
5.	E. Longoria	Long Beach St.	91	5	17	19	12	3	1	.341	.474	.571
7.	D. Stubbs	Texas	105	4	21	23	27	11	2	.314	.438	.552
9.	W. Hodges	Georgia Tech	95	4	24	13	24	0	0	.368	.450	.568

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-------March 20, 2006-------

It was a pretty brutal weekend for much of RC's Top 10 prospect list, with North Carolina's Daniel Bard putting in the worst performance. Bard was roughed up by the Maryland Terrapins, allowing a career-worst 10 runs (nine earned) on 10 hits in 5.1 innings pitched while picking up his first loss of the season. In one game, his ERA ballooned to a disappointing 4.05. Teammate Andrew Miller wasn't much better, as the Terps touched him up for six runs (five earned) in his five innings on Saturday. Maryland is not a good offensive team, so it was a big surprise to see them do so well against two of the top pitchers in college baseball. Things don't get any easier for the Tar Heels this weekend, as they travel to No. 1 Georgia Tech to take on one of the nation's best offensive powerhouses. It will be interesting to see how the Yellow Jackets' Wes Hodges and Matt Wieters fare against Miller and Bard -- it's certainly this week's most compelling matchup.

In other news, Missouri's Max Scherzer was scratched from his scheduled start on Friday due to soreness in his biceps. He's listed as being day-to-day, and there's no word yet whether or not he'll be able to go this weekend when Mizzou hosts No. 24 K-State. Also scratched on Friday was Nebraska's Joba Chamberlain, who missed his second straight start. He could have pitched, but since he was recovering from a triceps strain, the Huskers' coaching staff determined it would be best not to expose him to the brutal weather conditions in Lincoln over the weekend. He'll make his next start on Friday, as the Huskers host the tough Kansas Jaykawks.

Quick hits:

- Oregon State's Dallas Buck won the battle of first rounders, beating USC's Ian Kennedy on Friday, 4-1. Neither pitcher threw very well, as the two combined for 11 walks and only seven strikeouts. You'll notice that Kennedy dropped a bit on our list this week, as it's increasingly difficult for us to entertain the idea of the Royals drafting a Scott Boras client, particularly one who's not pitching very well.

- Florida's Matt LaPorta returned to action over the weekend after missing 14 games with a pulled stomach muscle, but he's going to need to start hitting home runs pretty quickly if he wants to stay on our list.

- RC this weekend will see Maryland play host to Miami, so we hope to get a good look at pitcher Chris Perez, catcher Eddy Rodriguez, and outfielder John Jay. We also hope to catch a game or two between Notre Dame and Georgetown.

- As always, our player reports can be viewed by clicking here. All reports will be downloaded there as they become available. We should have reports finished soon on Florida State's Shane Robinson and Bryan Henry, and Clemson's Jason Berken and Alex D'Elessio, so stay tuned.

- There was some movement this week on RC's list. Evan Longoria has in our opinion overtaken Drew Stubbs as the top position player available, and Hodges moved ahead of LaPorta:

RC's Top 10 Collegiate Draft Prospects

RC Rank	Player	Position	School	Last week
1.	Andrew Miller	LHP	North Carolina	1
2.	Max Scherzer	RHP	Missouri	2
3.	Daniel Bard	RHP	North Carolina	3
4.	Evan Longoria	3B/IF	Long Beach St.	6
5.	Ian Kennedy	RHP	Southern California	4
6.	Drew Stubbs	OF	Texas	5
7.	Joba Chamberlain	RHP	Nebraska	7
8.	Dallas Buck	RHP	Oregon St.	8
9.	Wes Hodges	3B	Georgia Tech	10
10.	Matt LaPorta	1B	Florida	9

Pitching Statistics (Last updated 3/20/06)

Rank	Player	School	ERA	W-L	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	OPP BA
1.	A. Miller	N. Carolina	1.91	4-0	33.0	23	10	7	8	39	.197
		Last game: 3/18		(ND)	5.0	9	6	5	1	6
2.	M. Scherzer	Missouri	2.88	3-1	25.0	18	8	8	7	31	.209
		Last game: 3/10		(L)	7.0	4	3	3	2	8
3.	D. Bard	N. Carolina	4.05	3-1	33.1	25	16	15	8	41	.207
		Last game: 3/17		(L)	5.1	10	10	9	4	6
5.	I. Kennedy	USC	2.83	2-4	47.2	39	19	15	16	53	.227
		Last game: 3/17		(L)	6.0	6	3	1	5	5
7.	J. Chamberlain	Nebraska	1.29	2-1	21.0	11	3	3	6	28	.157
		Last game: 3/3		(W)	7.0	3	0	0	1	11
8.	D. Buck	Oregon St.	2.19	5-0	37.0	22	11	9	22	32	.180
		Last game: 3/17		(W)	7.0	4	1	1	6	2

Batting Statistics (Last Updated 3/20/06)

Rank	Player	School	AB	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
4.	E. Longoria	Long Beach St.	82	4	15	19	10	3	1	.354	.486	.561
6.	D. Stubbs	Texas	92	3	16	18	26	10	2	.315	.429	.533
9.	M. LaPorta	Florida	36	2	10	12	7	0	0	.250	.462	.417
10.	W. Hodges	Georgia Tech	83	4	22	13	20	0	0	.398	.490	.627

-------March 13, 2006-------

After experiencing some tightness in his triceps during a bullpen session, Nebraska pitcher Joba Chamberlain did not throw as scheduled over the weekend vs. Alabama. RC inquired further, and Nebraska's baseball information director assured us that it was just a "precautionary measure." RC correspondent Matt Plambeck was at Friday's game, and while Chamberlain didn't pitch, he did see him playing catch in the outfield, and he snapped the above photo of Chamberlain icing his arm. There's no word yet on when Chamberlain will return to action, but the Huskers have a heavy schedule this week vs. Illinois State and South Dakota State, so he's a good bet to start one of those games.

North Carolina's duo of Daniel Bard and Andrew Miller continued their dominance, each picking up impressive victories over a good offensive Wake Forest squad. In their combined 14 innings pitched, they yielded only four hits and one unearned run to the Demon Deacons. On the season, Miller's ERA is now a microscopic 0.64, and his opponents' batting average of .152 is the best of any pitcher we are tracking. This weekend the Tar Heels will host the Maryland Terrapins, who are struggling badly this season. RC expects a sweep, and two more victories for Bard and Miller.

Quick hits:

- Despite pitching pretty well, Missouri's Max Scherzer took his first loss of the season on Friday vs. Purdue. The Boilermakers really ran the gauntlet last week, facing Bard, Miller, and Scherzer in consecutive games.

- Florida first baseman Matt LaPorta has missed 13 games with a pulled stomach muscle, but he was reportedly taking ground balls and batting practice before Sunday's game. Most people now expect him to be back in time for the Gators' series this weekend vs. the Arkansas Razorbacks.

- Despite 40 degree temperatures and 30 mph winds, Oregon State pitcher Dallas Buck had what OSU head coach Pat Casey referred to as "his best start of the year" on Friday vs. New Mexico. Buck retired eight of the last 10 batters faced en route to his fourth victory of the season. Up next for the Beavers is a great test against USC. Friday night should pit Buck vs. fellow likely first rounder Ian Kennedy in what RC is billing as the "matchup of the week."

- We are pleased to announce that we have created an archive page for the collegiate player reports we've written thus far. To view the page, click here. All reports will be downloaded there as they become available. Up next, RC plans to hit the road this weekend to see either Virginia take on #2 Clemson, or Virginia Tech take on #8 Florida State. We're not sure where we'll wind up going, but Charlottesville is closer and is therefore likely our destination. We'll keep you posted.

- For now, RC's list remains unchanged:

RC's Top 10 Collegiate Draft Prospects

RC Rank	Player	Position	School	Last week
1.	Andrew Miller	LHP	North Carolina	1
2.	Max Scherzer	RHP	Missouri	2
3.	Daniel Bard	RHP	North Carolina	3
4.	Ian Kennedy	RHP	Southern California	4
5.	Drew Stubbs	OF	Texas	5
6.	Evan Longoria	3B/IF	Long Beach St.	6
7.	Joba Chamberlain	RHP	Nebraska	7
8.	Dallas Buck	RHP	Oregon St.	8
9.	Matt LaPorta	1B	Florida	9
10.	Wes Hodges	3B	Georgia Tech	10

-------March 8, 2006-------

There was some movement on our list this week, as most of the top collegiate pitching prospects registered very good outings. Most impressive over the weekend was Daniel Bard, who earned a complete game victory over Purdue, a quality team that was a preseason favorite to qualify for the NCAA tournament out of the Big 10. Bard struck out 13 Boilermakers while surrendering only five hits and one walk. On the season, Bard is now 2-0 with 27 strikeouts and only two walks in 22 innings pitched.

His teammate Andrew Miller was every bit as good on Sunday, striking out 10 in a seven-inning effort, and Miller retains the top spot on our list. The Tar Heels open up their ACC schedule this weekend, as they travel to Winston-Salem to take on Wake Forest.

Also very impressive over the weekend was Nebraska's Joba Chamberlain, who jumps to #7 on our list after dominating Notre Dame in the Dairy Queen Tournament. Chamberlain struck out 11 Leprechauns over seven innings, yielding only three hits and one walk. He's building on a great 2005, and if he keeps this up, he's got a great chance at going very early in the 2006 draft. Up next for the Huskers this weekend is a good test, as they take on 12-3 Alabama.

RC's Top 10 Collegiate Draft Prospects

RC Rank	Player	Position	School	Last week
1.	Andrew Miller	LHP	North Carolina	1
2.	Max Scherzer	RHP	Missouri	2
3.	Daniel Bard	RHP	North Carolina	6
4.	Ian Kennedy	RHP	Southern California	3
5.	Drew Stubbs	OF	Texas	4
6.	Evan Longoria	3B/IF	Long Beach St.	5
7.	Joba Chamberlain	RHP	Nebraska	10
8.	Dallas Buck	RHP	Oregon St.	9
9.	Matt LaPorta	1B	Florida	7
10.	Wes Hodges	3B	Georgia Tech	8

As you may have noticed, the pitchers on our list jumped quite a bit this week. That's due in part to a Kansas City Star article on Saturday that reports the Royals are zeroing in on college arms with the first pick. The four pitchers listed are Max Scherzer, Miller, Bard, and Ian Kennedy, who, as you notice, now occupy our top four spots. That's due more to coincidence than the article, but it does reveal much about the Royals' intentions. Bard jumps over Kennedy because of his performance thus far, his superior size, and the fact that Kennedy has committed to have Scott Boras represent him.

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RC's 2006 College Prospect Tracker

Draft Prospect Update (5/9/06)

There was no movement on our list this week, as all of the pitchers on our list who played had quality outings. The North Carolina Tar Heels had the weekend off to prepare for exams, so our top ranked player, Andrew Miller, didn't pitch. The Tar Heels resume their schedule this weekend vs. ninth-ranked Virginia, so it should be another good test for Miller.

The weekend's most impressive performance was turned in by Washington's Tim Lincecum, who defeated Oregon State and handed Dallas Buck his first loss of the season. Lincecum threw eight innings while setting a Pac-10 record with 16 strikeouts. Lincecum threw 146 pitches to get through his innings, and while he's known to have a rubber arm, that still seems to defy good sense. Regardless, Lincecum's stats this season are incredibly impressive, as he's allowed only 53 hits in 102 IP while striking out a nation-leading 168 batters. The 54 walks are a bit of a concern, but his BAA of .154 is by far the best among all the pitchers on our list.

We debated moving Lincecum to # 2 on our list this week, but we'll wait to see how he does against Stanford this weekend. Since California's Brandon Morrow just pitched against Stanford, it will serve as a nice comparison. California, by the way, is off for the next two weeks, and they'll play their final conference series against Arizona State.

Another matchup to watch this weekend will # 15 Houston vs. # 1 Rice. It will be a great test for Brad Lincoln, and you can bet that nearly every team in baseball will be scouting Friday night's game. Lincoln threw well against UCF last week, but he's faced very few top-ranked programs this season, so it will be interesting to see how he fares against the best team in the nation.

Finally, Max Scherzer has returned to action after missing a few weeks with biceps tendinitis. He picked up a victory in relief vs. Baylor two weeks ago, and this past weekend he returned to the rotation and beat Mississippi Valley State. Up next for the Tigers is Texas Tech, and Scherzer will probably get the start on Saturday.

RC's Top 10 Collegiate Draft Prospects

RC Rank	Player	Position	School	Last week
1.	Andrew Miller	LHP	North Carolina	1
2.	Brandon Morrow	RHP	California	2
3.	Tim Lincecum	RHP	Washington	3
4.	Brad Lincoln	RHP	Houston	4
5.	Evan Longoria	3B/IF	Long Beach St.	5
6.	Joba Chamberlain	RHP	Nebraska	6
7.	Max Scherzer	RHP	Missouri	7
8.	Drew Stubbs	OF	Texas	8
9.	Wes Hodges	3B	Georgia Tech	9
10.	Matt Antonelli	3B	Wake Forest	10

Pitching Statistics (Last updated 5/16/06)

Rank	Player	School	ERA	W-L	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	OPP BA
1.	A. Miller	N. Carolina	1.87	10-1	81.2	65	28	17	23	87	.217
		Last game: 5/12		(L)	6.1	7	3	1	2	8
2.	B. Morrow	California	1.74	7-3	93.1	65	29	18	36	96	.200
		Last game: 5/5		(L)	8.1	6	3	3	0	11
3.	T. Lincecum	Washington	2.06	11-3	109.1	63	35	25	56	174	.168
		Last game: 5/12		(L)	7.0	10	4	3	2	5
4.	B. Lincoln	Houston	1.67	11-1	113.0	80	26	21	26	141	.197
		Last game: 5/12		(W)	9.0	5	0	0	2	9
6.	J. Chamberlain	Nebraska	3.75	5-4	69.2	60	31	29	29	83	.238
		Last game: 5/12		(L)	7.1	8	6	4	2	12
7.	M. Scherzer	Missouri	2.22	5-1	52.2	37	14	13	19	58	.206
		Last game: 5/13		(ND)	7.0	5	1	1	3	4

Batting Statistics (Last Updated 5/16/06)

Rank	Player	School	AB	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
5.	E. Longoria	Long Beach St.	173	9	39	40	26	3	1	.364	.491	.613
8.	D. Stubbs	Texas	205	11	48	35	52	21	5	.337	.436	.595
9.	W. Hodges	Georgia Tech	182	9	54	26	40	0	1	.346	.433	.593
10.	M. Antonelli	Wake Forest	200	11	36	38	24	15	3	.335	.446	.605

Editor's note: RC has ranked the above players as being the most likely to draw serious attention from the Royals for the first overall selection in the June draft. We believe the Royals will most likely select a pitcher or outfielder, but players like Matt LaPorta, Evan Longoria, and Wes Hodges may prove, with great seasons, to be too good to pass up. There are a few high school players who are likely to draw attention as well, such as pitchers Jordan Walden and Kyle Drabek and outfielder Cody Johnson, but access to their stats is very limited, so we've decided to focus solely on college players.

Will Howell start in Arizona on Saturday?

RC friend Kevin Agee today pointed out something I missed in yesterday's post about J.P. Howell -- Howell is slated to make his debut tonight for the Omaha Royals.

That's important to know, for it gives us the strongest evidence yet that Royals GM Allard Baird may be strongly considering calling up the young southpaw to start against the Diamondbacks on Saturday. Starting tonight would give Howell the standard four days' rest before Saturday, so it sets him up perfectly to make his Major League debut in Arizona. Wichita is off today, so if the Royals did in fact have Howell in mind for Saturday, it certainly explains the quick promotion to Omaha that puzzled RC yesterday.

It looks as though I may have been a bit rough on Dick Kaegel the other day. At this point, I have to consider Howell as the leading candidate for Saturday's start in Arizona.

That, of course, leads me to one of two conclusions:
1) J.P. Howell is really friggin' good; or
2) Allard Baird has lost his damned mind

For the sake of the ballclub, I pray that it's #1.

J.P. Howell heading to Omaha

J.P. Howell has been promoted to the Omaha Royals after pitching just 18.0 innings for AA Wichita. In the three starts he made, Howell's line was very good: 18.0 IP, 12 H, 5 R, 5 ER (2.50 ERA), 2 HR, 5 BB, 23 K

Howell was promoted to Wichita in mid-May after making eight starts for High Desert, where he compiled a then-league leading 1.96 ERA with 48 K and 24 BB in 46.0 IP.

Prior to this season, J.P. appeared in six games and made four starts for Idaho Falls in the Pioneer League after being drafted in June 2004. Essentially, Howell has made 15 professional starts and is now jumping all the way to AAA after a nearly unprecedented sprint through the lower levels of the minor leagues.

Is Howell ready for Omaha? I don't know. There is no denying that he has succeeded at every level thus far, but there is also no denying that the sample sizes of that success are VERY questionable. I mean, 18 innings at AA? Is that really enough time to make a determination that a player is ready to move on?

Clearly, Royals GM Allard Baird wants to challenge Howell to see if he can handle the quick advance through the system, but I sure hope he knows what he's doing. If he falters, Baird is going to take a lot of heat.

RC's 2006 Collegiate Scouting Reports

Below are links to the scouting reports we've published this season for the collegiate players we've taken a look at. Be sure to check this page frequently, as we will add reports often.

Daniel Bard, RHP, University of North Carolina

Andrew Miller, LHP, University of North Carolina

Harold Mozingo, RHP, Virginia Commonwealth University

Scott Sizemore, 2B, Virginia Commonwealth University

RC's Comprehensive Arizona Fall League Report

Editor's note: Below are all the photos and videos RC took on our official trip to Arizona on November 3-6, 2005. In addition, we have provided links to our columns from Arizona. To view the larger versions of the photos, simply click on the thumbnails.

RC's columns on the AFL:

RC is in Arizona! And we have VIDEO of a Billy Butler three-run blast!

Without further delay, RC presents Billy Butler's HR swing...

Matt Tupman launches key homer, scores winning run, and tries to kill RC...

RC wraps up Arizona trip as Butler and Gordon both homer...

RC reports on Butler's defense...Scorpions clinch title bid!

Original RC Photos and Video:


Billy Butler:

Alex Gordon:

Brian Bass:

Matt Tupman: